Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell less than expected in April, as consumers' assessments of their current conditions fell sharply, but their future outlooks slipped only slightly. Their assessments of the jobs markets led the decline in current conditions, with fewer consumers reporting jobs were "plentiful" and more reporting jobs were "hard to get." On the plus side, income expectations were slightly higher, and inflation expectations eased slightly. And consumers reported slightly more plans to purchase durable goods than they did in April. Finally, we should note this survey was done before the debt ceiling news this weekend. Overall, the survey paints a slightly better picture of consumer confidence than the Michigan survey, suggesting the consumer still has significant worries but is likely willing to spend as uncertainties including inflation, high-interest rates, and government policy slowly pass.
Consumer Confidence in May FELL -1.4 to 102.3, BELOW the 3-month average of 103.33, BELOW the 6-month average of 104.73, nearly in-line with year-ago level of 103.2.
The current conditions index FELL -3.2. The expectations index FELL -0.2. The Future expectations index was nearly unchanged, -0.2 to 71.5, BELOW the 3-month average of 72.4, BELOW the 6-month average of 74.5 and -2.2 BELOW the year-ago level.
The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are 'plentiful' from the percentage who said jobs are 'hard to get' FELL -5.9 to 31, BELOW the 3-month average of 34.8, BELOW the 6-month average of 36.1 and -8.5 BELOW the year-ago level.
| Conference Board Consumer Confidence | May-23 | Apr-23 | 3m. avg. | 6m. avg. | 12m. avg. | 2022 | 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 102.30 | 103.70 | 103.30 | 104.70 | 103.10 | 104.49 | 113.40 |
| Confidence - Current Situation | 148.60 | 151.80 | 149.80 | 150.10 | 146.70 | 145.70 | 144.50 |
| Confidence - Expectations | 71.50 | 71.70 | 72.40 | 74.50 | 74.00 | 76.98 | 92.70 |
| Jobs Plentiful | 43.50 | 47.50 | 46.30 | 47.40 | 47.70 | 50.48 | 43.00 |
| Jobs Hard to Get | 12.50 | 10.60 | 11.50 | 11.30 | 11.80 | 11.78 | 14.40 |
| Income Increased | 17.80 | 17.30 | 17.10 | 16.70 | 17.00 | 16.83 | 18.70 |
| Income Decreased | 11.50 | 11.50 | 12.30 | 12.50 | 13.70 | 14.11 | 11.00 |
| Same Income | 70.70 | 71.20 | 70.60 | 70.80 | 69.30 | 69.06 | 70.30 |
| More Jobs 6 Months | 13.60 | 14.30 | 14.50 | 15.90 | 16.60 | 18.21 | 22.00 |
| Fewer Jobs 6 Months | 20.20 | 21.30 | 20.70 | 20.60 | 20.50 | 19.57 | 17.20 |
| Employment Same | 66.20 | 64.40 | 64.90 | 63.50 | 62.90 | 62.22 | 60.80 |
| Business Better | 12.90 | 14.10 | 14.50 | 16.20 | 16.70 | 18.62 | 23.60 |
| Business Worse 6 Months | 20.60 | 21.40 | 20.40 | 20.90 | 22.50 | 23.04 | 16.20 |
| Business Same | 66.50 | 64.50 | 65.10 | 62.90 | 60.80 | 58.34 | 60.10 |
| Inflation Expectation | 6.10 | 6.20 | 6.20 | 6.40 | 6.80 | 7.21 | 5.90 |
